U.S. Watches China’s Space Advances as Satellite Refueling Raises Competition Concerns

Insider Brief

• The U.S. is monitoring China’s advances in space technology, particularly its development of in-orbit satellite refueling, which could extend spacecraft lifespans and shift the balance of space competition, according to the South China Morning Post.

• Chief Master Sergeant Ron Lerch of the U.S. Space Force described China’s Shijian-25 satellite launch as the first publicly disclosed test of satellite refueling and servicing, calling it a “game-changing technology,” SCMP reported.

• Lerch also warned that China is expanding its influence in space through the Belt and Road Initiative, researching stealth satellite technology, and competing with the U.S. in areas like reusable spacecraft and small satellite networks, according to SCMP.

The United States is closely watching China’s advances in space technology, particularly its progress in refueling satellites in orbit, a capability that could extend the life of spacecraft and alter the dynamics of space competition, according to the South China Morning Post. Speaking at London-based think tank Chatham House, Chief Master Sergeant Ron Lerch, deputy chief of space operations for intelligence at the US Space Force, described China’s January launch of the Shijian-25 satellite as significant. The satellite tested refueling and servicing capabilities, marking the first time China has publicly disclosed such a technology, he said. Lerch said, according to SCMP: “the first time that [China] publicly disclosed a capability on orbit to do refuelling and servicing and that’s a game-changing technology” China has rapidly expanded its space program in recent years, aiming to establish itself as a major space power by 2050. In April, Beijing placed its aerospace force under the Central Military Commission, underscoring the government’s emphasis on military space capabilities. Meanwhile, the US Space Force, established in 2019 under former President Donald Trump, continues to push forward with its own space initiatives. Lerch noted that China’s efforts to expand its presence in space go beyond technology development. He warned that China is leveraging its Belt and Road Initiative to form partnerships with nations looking to establish space programs. Lerch said that one concern is that China could be using access to space as way to gain a footing in certain countries, SCMP reported. The US remains the dominant space power, with more than 8,000 satellites in orbit—12 times the number operated by China. However, Lerch expressed concern over China’s rapid growth and what he called “unmanaged competition.” The US has already demonstrated the benefits of satellite servicing. In 2019, aerospace firm Northrop Grumman successfully extended the lifespan of a satellite by five years using refueling technology. NASA had also been developing its own version but canceled the project last year due to technical difficulties, cost overruns, and delays. Beyond satellite refueling, China has been researching stealth technology in space, a development that could complicate the US’s ability to track and monitor Chinese activities. Lerch pointed to publicly available Chinese research papers on “super stealth capabilities” in space, which could make it harder to detect satellites or other space assets. “That’s something we have to be concerned about – what type of capabilities are going to be on orbit in the not too distant future?” he said, according to SCMP. Over the next five years, Lerch identified two key areas where China and the US are likely to compete: reusable spacecraft and satellite networks known as “proliferated architecture.” Reusable spacecraft could significantly reduce costs, as demonstrated by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, which has been launched and reused multiple times. China’s Shijian-19, launched in September, marked its first step toward reusable space technology. Proliferated architecture, which involves deploying large numbers of small satellites instead of relying on single large satellites, is seen as a way to increase resilience and provide better coverage. The approach allows for redundancy, making it harder to disrupt a network through a single failure or attack.