Insider Brief
- The Department of Defense is investing billions in satellite-based laser communications, but the Government Accountability Office warns that key capabilities remain unproven in space.
- The SDA’s initial demonstration phase, Tranche 0, has faced delays and has yet to fully validate planned laser communication functions, yet contracts for more complex tranches have already been awarded.
- The GAO recommends that SDA demonstrate laser communications capabilities before proceeding with future investments, warning that failure to do so could lead to costly inefficiencies.
- Image: GAO
The Department of Defense is investing billions in satellite-based laser communications, but a new government watchdog report raises concerns that the technology remains unproven in space.
A report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that the Pentagon’s Space Development Agency (SDA) has made progress in developing laser-based communications for its growing satellite network. However, despite multiple launches, the agency has yet to fully demonstrate the technology’s capabilities in orbit. The GAO warns that the agency is committing to increasingly complex and costly satellite tranches without first proving the viability of the core technology.
While acknowledging that full laser communications capabilities have yet to be demonstrated, SDA officials have since responded in comments to the GAO and to the media that primary goals have been achieved, which has validated key technologies and offered insights for both government and industry teams.
Delays and Unmet Milestones
The SDA, which oversees the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA), plans to deploy hundreds of interconnected satellites to improve data transport and missile warning systems. Laser communication technology promises faster and more secure data transmission than traditional radio-frequency systems, but the GAO report highlights serious setbacks.
According to the report, SDA’s initial demonstration phase, known as Tranche 0 (T0), was originally scheduled to launch in 2022 but was delayed until 2023 and 2024. Despite these launches, key laser communication capabilities remain undemonstrated. As of December 2024, one of SDA’s four prime contractors had validated only three of eight planned capabilities, another had demonstrated just one, and the remaining two had shown no progress, according to the report.
Meanwhile, the SDA has already awarded nearly $10 billion in contracts for Tranche 1 (T1) and Tranche 2 (T2), which will significantly expand the constellation’s size and complexity. The GAO warns that this approach contradicts best practices in product development, which emphasize proving basic capabilities before scaling up investment.
Risk of Premature Investment
“This approach means that SDA is proceeding through tranches and increasing the complexity of its development based on designs that have not yet met initial capabilities,” the GAO analysts write in the report. “As a result, SDA is at risk of unnecessarily investing in new efforts without yet delivering on promised capabilities intended to support critical missions.
The SDA’s development model involves launching new satellite tranches every two years, with each tranche intended to build upon the progress of the previous one. However, the agency argues that each tranche is independent, meaning delays in one phase will not necessarily affect the schedule of future phases. The GAO contends this strategy could lead to wasted investment if the fundamental laser communication technology does not work as intended.
Tranche 0 consists of 28 satellites, but Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 will expand the network to 165 and 264 satellites, respectively. The total cost of the program is projected to reach nearly $35 billion by 2029, according to the report.
GAO Recommendations and Pentagon Response
In response to these concerns, the GAO has issued four recommendations, calling for SDA to demonstrate a “minimum viable product” for laser communications before proceeding with future tranches. Specifically, the report advises the Secretary of the Air Force to:
- Ensure that SDA fully demonstrates laser communications in Tranche 0 before advancing further investments.
- Establish clear links between testing results and future tranche approvals.
- Align funding with demonstrated development progress.
- Improve transparency by documenting and sharing test plans and results with stakeholders.
The Department of Defense concurred with the recommendations but provided comments. The SDA maintains that its iterative approach remains the best strategy for rapidly fielding new capabilities.
Implications for U.S. Military Space Strategy
The stakes for the Pentagon’s laser communications effort are high. Space-based data transmission is a critical component of modern military operations, and laser systems promise significant advantages over traditional radio-based communications, including higher bandwidth, lower latency, and greater resistance to jamming or interception.
However, without successful demonstrations, the GAO warns that the SDA’s rapid expansion of the satellite network could result in costly inefficiencies. If the technology proves unworkable, the Pentagon may be forced to either retrofit satellites with alternative systems or scrap key components of the architecture.
The next rounds of launches are on the horizon and satellite industry officials should be watching this pivotal moment in what might be a pivotal moment in Department of Defense’s space communications strategy.
You can read the full report here.
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