Insider Brief
- A new Council on Foreign Relations report warns that U.S. space dominance is at risk due to rising threats from China, Russia, and growing orbital congestion.
- The report recommends making space a national security priority, strengthening satellite defenses, and leading international efforts to establish space traffic rules.
- It calls for direct engagement with China on risk reduction, expanding commercial and military space partnerships, and banning destructive anti-satellite weapon tests.
- Image: NASA
The United States is at risk of losing its leadership in space, as rivals China and Russia expand their capabilities and space becomes increasingly crowded and vulnerable to conflict, according to a new report from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
The report, Securing Space: A Plan for U.S. Action, warns that if Washington does not take decisive steps, the country could face a new “Sputnik moment”—a reference to the shock in 1957 when the Soviet Union launched the first artificial satellite, spurring the U.S. space race.
“Space is a critical strategic domain—just like oceans and airspace,” the analysts write in the report. “Space assets are vital to modern life, underpinning the United States’ security and prosperity. In the past five years, however, conditions in space have changed drastically, raising new problems that demand new solutions. In an earlier era, space activities were dominated by a few countries implementing government-led programs. But those days are gone.”
The study lays out the case for treating space as a national security priority and taking stronger steps to protect American satellites, develop international rules for space traffic, and engage with China on risk reduction The Council’s Task Force on Space Management Policy, which includes former military officials, diplomats, and industry experts, argues that without intervention, growing congestion and potential attacks on satellites could threaten everything from military operations to everyday conveniences like GPS and weather forecasting.
The Growing Threat
The U.S. has more satellites than any other country, including those used for defense, communications and global navigation. The commercial sector, led by companies such as SpaceX, has revolutionized access to orbit, launching thousands of satellites that power the modern economy. But these advantages are also vulnerabilities. China and Russia have developed weapons that can disable or destroy satellites, including cyberattacks, jamming devices and missiles capable of blowing satellites apart.
The report points to Russia’s 2021 anti-satellite (ASAT) missile test, which shattered one of its own satellites into thousands of debris pieces, forcing astronauts on the International Space Station to take shelter. The number of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), the area up to about 1,200 miles above the planet, has more than quadrupled since 2018. That congestion increases the likelihood of collisions, which could create even more debris in a chain reaction known as the “Kessler Effect,” making parts of space unusable.
Meanwhile, China is accelerating its space program, launching more than 500 objects into orbit in recent years and building its own space station. The report warns that China’s military doctrine considers space control essential to its broader military strategy, and its rapid satellite expansion could challenge U.S. dominance in key orbits.
According to the report: “The stakes are high. Russia’s debris-causing ASAT tests and its willingness to challenge norms endanger the peaceful use of space for everyone. China’s emergence as a peer competitor in space makes U.S. strategic planning for this domain more difficult and more urgent. Without immediate changes to how space is governed, the benefits of access to space could be lost to everyone. As the leading spacefaring country and the home base of the most innovative space companies, the United States is uniquely positioned to determine this future.”
4 Key Policy Recommendations
To address these risks, the CFR task force makes several recommendations aimed at strengthening U.S. space security and leadership.
Make Space a National Priority
The study calls on the president to hold a national space summit within the first year of the administration, signaling that space is a top priority. It also suggests formally designating key space assets as “critical infrastructure,” putting them in the same category as power grids and financial systems, which receive government protection and oversight.
Such a move would allow agencies like the Department of Homeland Security and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency to coordinate efforts to safeguard satellites and ground-based systems from cyber threats and physical attacks, according to the report.
Strengthen Space Deterrence
The U.S. has relied on large, expensive satellites that are difficult to replace if damaged or destroyed. The report urges a shift toward smaller, distributed satellite networks that can be quickly replaced, making it harder for an adversary to cripple communications or reconnaissance capabilities in a single strike.
The government should also develop new defensive measures, such as making satellites more resistant to jamming and cyberattacks. The study warns that in space, “offense dominates” — it is easier to destroy a satellite than to defend one. A comprehensive review of vulnerabilities across military and commercial space assets is needed, bringing together the Department of Defense, private industry, and intelligence agencies.
The report also calls for reinforcing international norms against space weapons. Following Russia’s ASAT test, the U.S. led a global push to ban such destructive tests, and a 2022 UN resolution gained wide support. But China and Russia opposed it, signaling continued risks. The CFR task force argues the U.S. should go further, working to prohibit ASAT weapons launched from space, not just from the ground.
Develop Rules for Space Traffic
Unlike air travel or maritime shipping, space has no single global authority to regulate traffic. The report calls for the U.S. to lead efforts to establish rules of the road for satellite operators, reducing collision risks. The Department of Commerce has started taking over civilian space traffic management from the military, but the transition needs more funding and political support to be effective.
With China planning to launch its own massive satellite constellations, including a network of 13,000 satellites to compete with Starlink, international coordination is essential. The report suggests the U.S. work with allies to create guidelines through existing institutions, such as the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs and the International Telecommunication Union.
Engage China on Risk Reduction
Despite rising tensions, the report stresses the need for direct engagement with China on safety issues. One priority is establishing a space “hotline”—a direct communication channel between U.S. and Chinese space agencies to prevent misunderstandings and manage potential crises, much like the Cold War-era nuclear hotlines between Washington and Moscow.
The U.S. should also push to update the 1968 Rescue Agreement, which ensures assistance to astronauts in distress. As more human spaceflight missions are launched, including China’s plans for crewed lunar missions, stronger international commitments to rescue efforts could be crucial.
Another step is refining the Wolf Amendment, a law that restricts NASA from engaging with China on space projects. Originally aimed at preventing technology theft, the restriction now limits scientific exchanges that could benefit both countries. The task force suggests easing barriers for basic research while maintaining strict security controls.
The Stakes for the Future
The CFR report warns that without urgent action, the U.S. risks losing the strategic advantage it has maintained since the Apollo era. China’s rapid rise in space, combined with mounting risks from debris and potential conflict, could undermine the benefits Americans take for granted—from secure military communications to accurate weather forecasts.
The U.S. government has long treated space as a secondary concern, assuming dominance would persist. But as the report makes clear, that assumption is no longer safe.
The next decade could determine whether the country can secure its role as the world’s leading space power — or fall behind in the next great frontier, the task force reports.
The authors conclude: “The United States must make space a top national priority and commit to revitalizing U.S. leadership in space. Advancing space management policy should be a priority for both the executive and legislative branches of government, and national leaders need to work together to fix vulnerabilities and enhance deterrence.”
Task Force Members
The CFR task for included:
Nina M. Armagno – Retired U.S. Space Force lieutenant general who helped establish the service and now advises major aerospace companies.
Charles F. Bolden Jr. – Former NASA administrator and astronaut who flew four space shuttle missions, including deploying the Hubble Space Telescope.
Esther D. Brimmer – Global governance expert and former U.S. State Department official focusing on international cooperation in space.
Laetitia de Cayeux – Technology entrepreneur and early SpaceX investor, specializing in space, AI, and biotechnology ventures.
Phaedra Chrousos – Chief strategy officer at Libra Group, overseeing aerospace and technology investments and former Obama administration digital leader.
Mai’a K. Davis Cross – Political scientist specializing in international space diplomacy, European security, and public-private collaboration.
Laura DeNardis – Georgetown University professor and cybersecurity expert focused on internet governance and digital infrastructure security.
Charles Duelfer – Former U.S. intelligence official and weapons inspector with expertise in nuclear security and space policy.
Celeste V. Ford – Aerospace engineer, founder of Stellar Solutions, and investor in next-generation space technology startups.
Stephen Hadley – Former U.S. National Security Advisor with expertise in defense policy and international security.
Jane Harman – Former U.S. congresswoman and national security expert with a focus on intelligence and defense strategy.
Kay Bailey Hutchison – Former U.S. ambassador to NATO and U.S. senator, with expertise in transatlantic security and space policy.
Rob Meyerson – Former president of Blue Origin and aerospace executive focused on space commercialization and infrastructure.
Robert B. Millard – Chairman emeritus of the MIT Corporation and defense technology leader with experience in aerospace investments.
Chris Morales – Former U.S. Navy fighter pilot and investor in defense and national security technology startups.
Jamie Morin – Aerospace Corporation executive and former Pentagon official specializing in space defense policy.
Saadia M. Pekkanen – University of Washington professor specializing in space law, security, and Asian space policy.
Audrey M. Schaffer – Space policy expert and former National Security Council official focused on space security and governance.
Benjamin L. Schmitt – Astrophysicist and energy security expert with experience in international space policy and defense.
Jonathan Spalter – CEO of USTelecom and former White House technology policy official specializing in broadband and space communications.
Kathryn D. Sullivan – Former NASA astronaut, first American woman to walk in space, and former NOAA administrator.
Ezinne Uzo-Okoro – Former NASA engineer and White House space policy official specializing in orbital debris and space sustainability.
Samuel S. Visner – Cybersecurity and space intelligence expert with experience at the NSA and in commercial space policy.
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