Space Race 2.0: Stanford Emerging Tech Review Shows Power Shift Toward Private Sector, Lunar Mining and Orbital Infrastructure

Insider Brief

• The beginning of the NewSpace era has largely begun, according to the 2025 Stanford Emerging Technology Review, which points out that private companies are now the main engine of space innovation.
• Resuable launch systems and mass production are among the fuels that are sparking this age of innovation in space.
• Despite the many opportunities, challenges remain, according to the report, which details regulatory hassles and simmering tensions as significant hurdles.
• Image: NASA / Blue Canyon Technologies

Private companies have eclipsed governments as the main engine of space innovation, setting off a new phase of lunar competition, orbital logistics, and geopolitical uncertainty, according to the 2025 Stanford Emerging Technology Review.

The Stanford report highlights the rise of “NewSpace” — a term used to describe a more commercially-driven, modular and fast-paced approach to space development. Unlike the Cold War-era programs defined by government budgets and multiyear mission cycles, today’s space industry moves on venture timelines and private-sector incentives. The change is not only lowering launch costs and increasing the pace of satellite deployment, but also creating new dependencies on corporate infrastructure in national security and economic planning.

Reusable Launch Systems, Mass Production

At the center of this shift is the proliferation of reusable launch systems and the mass production of small satellites. According to the report, low-cost launch capabilities pioneered by companies like SpaceX have driven a surge in satellite constellations, enabling global coverage for communications, surveillance, and Earth observation. These platforms are increasingly central to logistics, disaster response, climate monitoring, and even military operations.

The space transportation industry has seen launch costs drop by more than an order of magnitude over a couple of decades to $1,500 per kilogram in 2021,” the analysts write. :Companies like SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic have made progress in providing reliable launches and developing new vehicles. SpaceX’s Starship — the most powerful rocket ever built — could dramatically reduce the cost of achieving LEO orbits, aspirationally between 10 and 100 times cheaper than today.”

Stanford analysts warn that this growth is outpacing policy. The regulatory frameworks governing orbital traffic, frequency coordination, and space debris have not kept up with the volume of launches. The report notes a “tragedy of the commons” scenario unfolding in low Earth orbit (LEO), where thousands of satellites now compete for limited slots and contribute to growing collision risks. In-space servicing — such as robotic repairs, refueling, and deorbiting of satellites — is one emerging response, but standards and governance are lagging.

Multi-Polar Lunar Push

The report also flags the Moon as a rising theater of strategic and commercial activity. Where previous lunar missions were scientific or symbolic, the next generation is economically motivated. Water ice, regolith for construction, and Helium-3 — a potential fusion fuel — are attracting serious interest from space agencies and commercial players alike. The ability to extract, process, and use resources in situ is seen as essential to building a permanent off-Earth economy.

NASA’s Artemis program, China’s lunar sample return missions, and India’s growing capabilities signal a multipolar push toward sustained lunar presence. Meanwhile, private firms are developing landers, rovers, and habitats aimed at long-term settlement. The Stanford analysts suggests the Moon is a “logistics hub in waiting, especially for fuel depots and power infrastructure that could support missions deeper into the solar system.

Stanford’s researchers write: “Recent years have seen a renewed desire to maintain a permanent human presence in lunar orbit and on the lunar surface. The abundance of certain materials on the Moon provides opportunities for mining and manufacturing. Such activities would reduce the amounts of material that would otherwise have to be transported from Earth.”

Space Tech Is Rising, So Are Tensions

These developments come with rising geopolitical tension. The Stanford report highlights that four countries — the U.S., China, Russia, and India — have now demonstrated the ability to destroy satellites with kinetic weapons. Anti-satellite (ASAT) tests not only raise security risks, but create long-lasting debris clouds that threaten civilian and military assets alike.

The report points to the increasing entanglement between commercial operators and national defense, raising questions about liability, deterrence, and sovereignty.

Remote Sensing

One of the most commercially promising areas identified in the report is the explosion in remote sensing. Satellite-based Earth observation has advanced well beyond visible imagery. Stanford highlights the growing use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR), hyperspectral sensors, and radio-frequency mapping, which can detect heat signatures, chemical compositions, and electronic emissions. These tools are being used to track deforestation, agricultural yields, wildfire patterns, and troop movements in conflict zones.

The report points out that this is one space tech area that is creating immediate impact. The growing utility of this data has opened the door for new applications — including insurance underwriting, precision agriculture, and ESG compliance. Digital twin models of Earth, fed by constant streams of sensor data, are enabling more sophisticated simulations for everything from urban planning to climate forecasting.

Stanford calls these “planetary dashboards” and suggests that governments and industries alike will come to rely on them.

In-Space Servicing, Assembly And Manufacturing

Another future-facing trend identified in the review is the growth of in-space servicing, assembly, and manufacturing 00 collectively known as ISAM. Once the stuff of science fiction, these capabilities are now being demonstrated in orbit. Companies like Northrop Grumman and Astroscale have tested satellite life-extension and debris-removal missions. Modular satellite buses, robot arms, and autonomous docking systems are being built to allow assets to be maintained, upgraded, or recycled in space. The implications are far-reaching: longer satellite lifetimes, lower costs, and a shift toward sustainable orbital infrastructure.

Stanford also explores speculative but potentially transformative energy concepts that could emerge as launch costs continue to fall. These include space-based solar power — where satellites harvest sunlight and beam energy to Earth — and orbital reflectors that could provide targeted lighting or heat. Though these ideas remain in experimental stages, the report suggests they may become viable if material costs drop and in-orbit construction becomes routine.

Actionable Insights For The Space Industry

For industry professionals, the report offers a clear message: the economics, governance, and strategic calculus of space are being rewritten.

Companies will need to navigate a more complex environment of public-private interdependence, regulatory uncertainty, and international rivalry. New business models will emerge around lunar logistics, orbital data services, and ISAM ecosystems. Governments will face growing pressure to modernize treaties and share oversight authority with corporate stakeholders.

Here are some immediate and “Over The Horizon” opportunities.

Immediate Trend

Privatization, Miniaturization, and Reusability

The shift toward private-sector-led development is accelerating space access while compressing technology lifecycles. Reusable rockets and CubeSats have lowered costs and enabled faster iteration, opening the door to real-time innovation. But this rapid privatization also introduces governance risks. Dual-use technologies like debris removal systems may be repurposed for offensive uses. Space agencies and defense officials must now coordinate with a growing number of commercial actors whose interests are not always aligned with national priorities.

The report suggests that industry leaders should proactively engage with regulators to shape standards for dual-use technologies and define protocols for attribution and accountability in low-Earth orbit (LEO).

The New Moon Rush

Recent lunar missions by India, China, Japan, and private companies signal the beginning of a sustained lunar presence. The Moon’s regolith, ice, and Helium-3 deposits make it a prime candidate for in-situ mining and manufacturing. Launching materials from the Moon rather than Earth significantly reduces fuel requirements, creating opportunities to build and supply lunar bases, spacecraft, and LEO launch platforms from lunar factories.

According to the report, lunar supply chain modeling could be important investment areas and partnerships with robotics firms for autonomous surface operations might be worth exploring, while governments should develop bilateral and multilateral frameworks for lunar property rights and resource-sharing.

Over the Horizon

Manufacturing in Microgravity

Manufacturing in space offers technical advantages for producing pharmaceuticals, optical fibers, and semiconductors that require contamination-free environments and precise molecular arrangements. Microgravity eliminates issues like sedimentation and buoyancy, making it possible to grow perfect crystals or create advanced materials with fewer defects.

The report indicates that early-stage ventures in biotech and advanced materials should explore pilot manufacturing in orbit, targeting high-value, small-batch markets that justify current launch costs.

Moon and Asteroid Mining

Moon and asteroid mining could yield rare-earth elements critical for batteries, electronics, and defense systems. Helium-3, abundant on the Moon, has potential use in future fusion reactors. Mining lunar regolith and ice is also a prerequisite for sustaining long-duration lunar missions and extending human activity into deeper space.

Mining and energy firms should monitor legal developments in off-Earth resource claims and consider technology partnerships to develop scalable extraction and processing systems for use in harsh lunar conditions, the report suggests.

Space-Based Power Generation

Above Earth’s atmosphere, solar panels can receive uninterrupted sunlight, making orbit a viable platform for clean energy generation. Stanford notes that new concepts—such as orbital mirrors and microwave power beaming—may become economically feasible as launch costs fall.

Energy-sector players should evaluate long-term R&D opportunities in space-based power systems and consider partnering with aerospace primes to pilot small-scale orbital demonstrators.

Space Situational Awareness and ISAM

The orbital environment is becoming dangerously crowded, with tens of thousands of active satellites and millions of debris fragments. Enhancing space situational awareness (SSA) through satellite-based sensing and real-time data analytics will be crucial for operational safety. In parallel, in-space servicing, assembly, and manufacturing (ISAM) capabilities—enabled by spacecraft autonomy and precision docking—will be essential for sustainable infrastructure.

Companies developing SSA or ISAM capabilities should prioritize autonomous RPOD (rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking) technologies and push for integration into international safety standards. National space agencies should accelerate open data sharing and expand debris remediation programs.

A Fragile Framework for a Crowded Orbit

Those are the opportunities, but the report points out some high hurdles in reaching the Space 2.0 era.

Primarily, while the pace of space innovation has quickened, the rules governing its use remain decades behind. According to the Stanford Emerging Technology Review, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty — the bedrock of international space law — no longer matches the reality of privatized launches, commercial lunar mining, or defensive orbital maneuvers. Designed in an era when only nation-states operated in orbit, the treaty leaves major gaps in areas now critical to economic and military interests.

Among the most pressing concerns is the lack of a coordinated system for managing traffic in low-Earth orbit. With the number of active satellites rising tenfold in the past decade and mega-constellations on the horizon, the risk of collisions is growing exponentially. Yet there are still no globally accepted protocols for right-of-way, emergency maneuvers, or debris mitigation. Stanford warns that without urgent action, a chain reaction of satellite crashes — known as the Kessler syndrome — could render key orbital bands unusable.

The United States faces challenges of its own. Agencies such as the FAA and FCC have struggled to keep pace with the volume and complexity of space activity. Licensing delays, regulatory ambiguity, and poor interagency coordination are slowing private innovation while leaving critical gaps in oversight. Compounding the issue is the fact that U.S. space infrastructure, despite its essential role in navigation, communications, and defense, is not formally classified as critical infrastructure — a designation that would unlock broader security protections and funding.

Meanwhile, the blurred line between civilian and military space assets has eroded long-standing norms. The Stanford review notes that four countries have now demonstrated anti-satellite capabilities, and the possibility of orbital nuclear weapons — though banned in theory — remains a serious risk. A detonation in low-Earth orbit could disable satellite operations for months and trigger global disruptions in everything from financial transactions to weather forecasting.

The regulatory vacuum also extends to the Moon and beyond because there are no enforceable international rules for resource extraction or property claims. Analysts suggest that this means the growing rush for lunar mining and settlement risks igniting geopolitical friction. Stanford calls for urgent leadership in establishing rules of the road for off-Earth activities — especially as private missions begin to intersect with national goals.

Taken together, these challenges form what Stanford terms a “sustainability paradox”: space technologies are increasingly vital for climate monitoring, national security, and economic development — yet their rapid proliferation threatens the very environment they depend on. Without modernized rules, enforcement mechanisms, and shared norms of behavior, the orbital economy may soon find itself trapped under its own weight.

The full report also contains insights into artificial intelligence, semiconductor (quantum) and other emerging technologies. Full review is highly recommended, you can find it available for download here.

The report features experts, including co-chairs Condoleezza Rice, John B. Taylor, Jennifer Widom and Amy Zegart, along with director and editor-in-chief Herbert S. Lin and managing editor Martin Giles.