Insider Brief
- China is forming a planetary defense team after the discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 2.2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032.
- A Chinese aerospace research center has begun recruiting specialists to develop asteroid monitoring and early warning systems.
- NASA’s 2022 test confirmed that asteroid trajectories can be altered, but scientists continue to explore additional deflection methods.
China is assembling a team to protect Earth from asteroids after scientists identified a space rock with a small chance of impact in 2032, according to the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
The European Space Agency (ESA) on Friday updated its assessment of asteroid 2024 YR4, a newly discovered object estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters (130 and 300 feet) wide. It now ranks as the highest-risk asteroid on ESA’s watch list, with a 2.2% probability of hitting Earth in seven years.
The asteroid was first detected in late December by astronomers at the University of Hawaii. Once scientists determined the space rock had crossed an international threshold for potential Earth impact, global monitoring systems were activated.
In response, a special projects center within China’s State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence (SASTIND) posted a recruitment notice for planetary defense specialists. The announcement, published on the WeChat account of the journal China Space Science and Technology last month, listed three positions dedicated to asteroid monitoring and early warning systems, SCMP reports. The center is responsible for aerospace research, satellite development, and Earth observation.
Governments and space agencies have been ramping up planetary defense efforts in recent years. The most significant test so far came in 2022, when NASA deliberately crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid to change its trajectory, according to the newspaper. The test confirmed that humans could nudge an asteroid off course—potentially preventing a future collision.
Several strategies exist for deflecting or disrupting dangerous space rocks. In addition to impact-based methods like NASA’s test, scientists have proposed using nuclear explosions, solar-powered propulsion, or gravitational forces from spacecraft to alter an asteroid’s path.
The risk posed by asteroid 2024 YR4 remains low, but its discovery highlights the unpredictable nature of near-Earth objects. Because many asteroids are detected only after they pass close to the planet, some scientists argue for increased global funding for detection and mitigation technologies.
China’s planetary defense efforts come as the country expands its space ambitions. The nation has sent astronauts to its own space station, developed a lunar program, and launched deep-space missions, including an upcoming asteroid sampling project. The recruitment effort suggests Beijing is seeking to develop independent capabilities to track and respond to potential space threats.
ESA and other space agencies will continue to refine impact probability estimates for 2024 YR4 as astronomers gather more observations.
Asteroids in the past have entered and exited the list of potential space-borne threats, according to NASA. That’s all part of the complexities involved in tracking space objects with erratic orbits, such as asteroids.
According to NASA: “As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known. It is possible that 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on the NASA JPL asteroid risk list. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.”
To continue to monitor, NASA will make the latest data available via NASA’s automated Sentry page. They will also continue to post updates on NASA’s planetary defense blog.
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